“Currently low coal supplies and limited capacity to increase domestic coal production mean that natural gas will remain in high demand for electricity generation, contributing to the higher natural gas prices in our forecast,” DeCarolis said. Last month’s STEO forecast a 7% increase in domestic coal production, and based in part on this revision, we expect higher natural gas prices later this year. coal production will total 598 million short tons in 2022, which is a 3% increase from 2021. This forecast is a significant revision from previous forecasts, largely because EIA updated its power generation modeling to better account for evolving constraints in the coal market. The Henry Hub natural gas price will average $8.59 per million British thermal units in the second half of 2022, which is an 88% increase from the second half of 2021. electricity mix this summer and throughout the year,” DeCarolis said. “High natural gas prices, limited coal supply, and increased solar and wind capacity mean that renewables should play a larger role in the U.S. Solar and wind are the only energy sources that will increase their share of U.S. The oil production in federal lands of the United States recovered from the levels between 20, where around 650 million barrels of oil were produced. electricity generation this summer, up from 9.6% in summer 2021. Solar and wind power will provide 11.1% of U.S. Other key takeaways from the May 2022 STEO forecast include: household will pay about the same amount for electricity this summer as last summer. Higher electricity prices mean that the average U.S. households will use 2.9% less electricity this summer compared with last summer, largely because of weather forecasts for a cooler summer this year. EIA forecasts that retail sales of electricity to the industrial sector will grow by 2.8% and by 1.5% in the commercial sector.ĮIA expects that U.S. economic growth will increase electricity use by 0.4% in the United States this summer (June-August) compared with the summer of 2021. “Low global oil inventories coupled with continued high demand for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products means that increased production likely won’t have much impact on prices in the short term.”ĮIA also recently published its annual Summer Electricity Industry Outlook, which forecasts that continued U.S. oil production levels in 2023,” said Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator. “A high level of uncertainty remains in our outlooks, but we have consistently forecast that elevated crude oil prices would help drive record-level annual U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million barrels per day this year and 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023, which would surpass the record average production of 12.3 million barrels per day set in 2019.ĭespite the increases in production, EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to remain above $100 per barrel this year, according to the agency’s May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. In December 2014, the world experienced just that as world oil prices fell below breakeven for almost all oil exporters.The U.S. State budgets of oil-producing countries suffer as oil prices dip below their respective breakeven prices. Sustained price levels below the cost of production can deter exploration and production and shift production potential for years to come. This dashboard presents oil price dynamics and the breakeven oil prices-minimum oil price to cover general government expenditures-over the past decade as well as a snapshot of the marginal cost of oil production by country in 2014.Ī world oil price in the range of $55 to $60 per barrel is less than the cost of Russian Arctic oil production, European and Brazilian biofuel production, US and Canadian shale and tight oil production, and Brazilian presalt oil production.

(Oct 2018) Global oil prices have fallen by more than 30 percent since the summer of 2014, affecting oil producers and consumers alike.

Us oil production by year